Tesla enters the robotaxi market late, with formidable competitors already established in several major cities and international markets.
Waymo, owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet, has logged millions of fully driverless miles with no human safety monitors in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.
Amazon’s Zoox, GM’s Cruise, and other startups are also vying for leadership, leveraging advanced sensor arrays, purpose-built vehicles, and partnerships with ride-hailing services.
Tesla’s approach is notably different: it relies on camera-based “vision-only” technology, eschewing lidar and radar used by its rivals, betting this will ultimately be cheaper and easier to scale.
The competitive gap is clear, however—Waymo and Zoox already offer fully autonomous, commercially available rides in multiple cities, while Tesla’s system remains tightly controlled and supervised.
Despite these challenges, analysts argue that if Tesla can deliver reliable autonomy at scale, the financial upside could be transformative, potentially adding hundreds of billions in market value.
But there is deep skepticism, too, with UBS and other banks warning that much of the robotaxi promise is already “priced in” to Tesla’s stock.
Morgan Stanley and Wedbush are bullish, seeing the robotaxi platform as Tesla’s “golden age” and the key to future profitability.
Meanwhile, critics point out that years of missed deadlines and unfulfilled promises haunt Musk’s record on autonomy, and real-world performance remains the only measure that matters now.
If Tesla can leapfrog competitors with a vision-only platform, it will change the economics of autonomous mobility.
If not, the company risks falling further behind as others continue to rack up miles and regulatory approvals.